The election for governor is incredibly close in Washington state, and it's looking like the Democrats are going to try much the same tactics as were used in Florida during the 2000 presidential election.
Dino Rossi, the Republican, won the initial count by 261 votes out of some 2.6 million cast. That triggered an automatic recount, which also resulted in a Rossi win, although by 42 votes. Now, the Democratic candidate, Christine Gregoire, has the option of requesting yet another recount, although at this time at her expense, in the hopes of finding more votes somehow. The bad part is that it appears she'll only ask for a recount in King County, which voted some 60% in her favor and is therefore more likely to end up with a few extra votes for her. She'll undoubtedly not ask for statewide recount and will prefer to exclude those counties that had increases in Rossi's vote during the recount.
This is exactly what was going on in Florida in 2000. Gore was asking not for statewide recounts (after the first) but rather, for recounts in only the three southern counties where he had already won. Part of what the Supreme Court told Florida at the time was that recounting only some of the ballots, not the entire state's ballots, violated the Constitution's Equal Protection clause. They were also told that the law that specified certification must be completed in seven days could not be interpreted as meaning it's okay to hold off certification for nineteen days.
Let's hope this doesn't drag on and on. There may be 1.3 million voters that will be happy if Gregoire somehow finds 43 or more votes that make her governor, but there will be 1.3 million voters that will be very unhappy that after two counts of the ballots that have their candidate winning, recounts can just keep happening until Gregoire's happy with the results. This is where the instant runoff voting system I mentioned a couple weeks ago would be very helpful, since Rossi's numbers are undoubtedly much lower with 2% of the vote going to a Libertarian candidate, whose supporters would likely have put Rossi as their second choice by a wide margin.
Is there any question any more that an individual's vote matters, when elections are decided by such small margins?
Monday, November 29, 2004
Friday, November 26, 2004
How I'll Buy My Next House
After looking at how my friend Ben has expanded his house, I can see that the next time that I buy a house, I'll have to find a smaller, single-level house and add a modular addition on top. Ben's got his expansion down to something like $50/square foot. My current house, which is cheap space, is priced at about $121/square foot, and in Bethesda, Maryland, pricing for new construction has passed the $300/square foot price. New knowledge to save me money on real estate!
Monday, November 22, 2004
International Trade, Jr.
Elizabeth was showing me some things she's bought recently over the Internet. What's amazing, is that she got them from her online friends from around the world. Four dollars for a metal box with miniature scissors and a bunch of cutouts, all decorated with some kind of little Japanese cartoon characters. She got that from a friend in Hong Kong. She had another little plastic pillbox with stickers from a friend in Singapore. Then there were sticker sheets from much closer, but still more than just a walk down the street, from a friend in Michigan. She has a few things she sells, too, with her Paypal and Ebay accounts.
So Elizabeth is twelve and involved in low volume international trade.
So Elizabeth is twelve and involved in low volume international trade.
Sunday, November 21, 2004
Businesses can make money in unexpected ways
I continue to read Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics, and it's extremely interesting. I do find that I already know much of what's in the book, but how he says it is so clear and his examples so illustrative, it really solidifies what I know about economics. There are still areas that I'm learning, and I don't doubt that the bigger knowledge payout will come when I read Sowell's follow-up book to this, Applied Economics.
The book review, however, will come later when I'm done. In the meantime, an almost off-hand fact I learned from the book already is worth mentioning. It seems that in the early days of credit cards, there were millions in New York City who had them before the large department stores would accept them. Obviously, that's changed and the department stores have even gotten in to the act with their own credit cards. What I hadn't realized was how a large enough chain of stores supporting it's own credit card business can mean they are making money from the interest they earn off those loans as well or even better than their main line of business.
The examples Sowell uses is that in 2003 Sears made half its money from credit cards, while Circuit City made all its profit from its credit cards while losing $17 million in consumer electronics sales. It seems that it should be a basic business tenet to think about new ways for the business to make money that might be less than obvious.
Saturday, November 20, 2004
Airline Problem - Again
Now at the Seattle airport, attempting to fly to DC, my flight has just been scheduled to take a different airplane. Our originally scheduled airplane has a problem with an aileron (sp?), which is apparently a non-vital, unused system that is required to be working before you can fly. I don't quite understand how it can be both unnecessary and part of the plane, or unnecessary and required for that matter, but that's the story. We're about to switch to another airplane that has this unnecessary but vital piece of equipment working.
In the last six months, I've flown quite a lot, and I'm amazed at how some half of the flights I've been on have had some problem like this that has caused delays, rerouting to other destinations, and so on. Is this some kind of message? I sure hope not, as I have no intention of ceasing travel.
In the last six months, I've flown quite a lot, and I'm amazed at how some half of the flights I've been on have had some problem like this that has caused delays, rerouting to other destinations, and so on. Is this some kind of message? I sure hope not, as I have no intention of ceasing travel.
Friday, November 19, 2004
Ann Coulter's Latest Book
How to Talk to a Liberal (If You Must) : The World According to Ann Coulter by Ann Coulter amazon
I've finished reading this one, and I think it's a pretty good book, although with a couple flaws. First off, before getting into the book itself, I don't understand why people get so up in arms over Ann Coulter. Sure, she has strong opinions on the subjects of liberals and liberalism in general and she doesn't pull any punches when she talks about particular liberal politicians (most notably Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton.) But I don't see people on the other side of the aisle pulling their punches or getting critically hammered in the same way. Is Al Franken somehow more friendly to conservatives? I think not.
The biggest downside to the book is that some 80% of the content is available on the web in the form of Coulter's articles published in places like Townhall.com over the last three or four years. For regular readers of Coulter's work, the most likely people to buy one of her books, that means there's far less new material to read than you would expect. I'd probably already read some 80% of the articles available online prior to buying the book. Coulter mentions that some of the articles as printed here are longer versions of what was previously published, but I only found two or three times where I realized that I'd read the shorter version previously.
With that downside out of the way, let's look at some of the strengths. Unlike the last book of Coulter's I read, Slander, this one is clearly organized topically. Slander read more like a stream of conciousness that simply opens the spigot on page one and closes the spigot on the final page. If you want to pick and choose amongst topics, How to Talk... let's you jump to the parts that are interesting to you. A great example is the chapter on the Elian Gonzalez incident. I ended up with a better understanding of what went on through that whole series of events from a factual basis than I ever got from main stream media reports.
A common attack on Coulter is that she plays fast and loose with the facts. I really just don't see it. The references to LexisNexis, the constant poring over everything she says by a whole troupe of aggressive, anti-Coulter "fact-checkers", and her strong convictions on moral issues really don't add up to someone making stuff up. I don't think she needs to make stuff up, as there are plenty of crazy people in the world who provide all the material an author needs.
The best parts of the book are the tribute article to John F. Kennedy, Jr. and the last chapter of articles never previously published. The JFK, Jr. tribute is touching and shows that Coulter doesn't automatically despise liberals. He was from about as liberal and famous a family as we've ever had in America, and yet she speaks very highly of him. The reason is that they could discuss topics from opposite viewpoints and agree to disagree while letting each other express themselves. That Coulter had articles printed in George magazine is explained by that relationship.
Similarly, the last chapter has articles that were never printed elsewhere, plus both the rejecting publisher's and Coulter's deconstruction as to why. An article on feminist legal theory was, in my opinion, well done but rightly rejected by National Review as it didn't fit the style of that magazine. An article about what a particular proverb means to Coulter that was rejected by Good Housekeeping and the deconstruction after it were deeply insightful into Coulter's character as a strongly moral and conservative woman unafraid to speak her mind and practice what she preaches. In the end, she's more human and more likeable to me after reading this book.
I would give this book 3.5 out of 5, and would have gone to 4 out of 5 had there been more new content. Good job, Ann!
I've finished reading this one, and I think it's a pretty good book, although with a couple flaws. First off, before getting into the book itself, I don't understand why people get so up in arms over Ann Coulter. Sure, she has strong opinions on the subjects of liberals and liberalism in general and she doesn't pull any punches when she talks about particular liberal politicians (most notably Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton.) But I don't see people on the other side of the aisle pulling their punches or getting critically hammered in the same way. Is Al Franken somehow more friendly to conservatives? I think not.
The biggest downside to the book is that some 80% of the content is available on the web in the form of Coulter's articles published in places like Townhall.com over the last three or four years. For regular readers of Coulter's work, the most likely people to buy one of her books, that means there's far less new material to read than you would expect. I'd probably already read some 80% of the articles available online prior to buying the book. Coulter mentions that some of the articles as printed here are longer versions of what was previously published, but I only found two or three times where I realized that I'd read the shorter version previously.
With that downside out of the way, let's look at some of the strengths. Unlike the last book of Coulter's I read, Slander, this one is clearly organized topically. Slander read more like a stream of conciousness that simply opens the spigot on page one and closes the spigot on the final page. If you want to pick and choose amongst topics, How to Talk... let's you jump to the parts that are interesting to you. A great example is the chapter on the Elian Gonzalez incident. I ended up with a better understanding of what went on through that whole series of events from a factual basis than I ever got from main stream media reports.
A common attack on Coulter is that she plays fast and loose with the facts. I really just don't see it. The references to LexisNexis, the constant poring over everything she says by a whole troupe of aggressive, anti-Coulter "fact-checkers", and her strong convictions on moral issues really don't add up to someone making stuff up. I don't think she needs to make stuff up, as there are plenty of crazy people in the world who provide all the material an author needs.
The best parts of the book are the tribute article to John F. Kennedy, Jr. and the last chapter of articles never previously published. The JFK, Jr. tribute is touching and shows that Coulter doesn't automatically despise liberals. He was from about as liberal and famous a family as we've ever had in America, and yet she speaks very highly of him. The reason is that they could discuss topics from opposite viewpoints and agree to disagree while letting each other express themselves. That Coulter had articles printed in George magazine is explained by that relationship.
Similarly, the last chapter has articles that were never printed elsewhere, plus both the rejecting publisher's and Coulter's deconstruction as to why. An article on feminist legal theory was, in my opinion, well done but rightly rejected by National Review as it didn't fit the style of that magazine. An article about what a particular proverb means to Coulter that was rejected by Good Housekeeping and the deconstruction after it were deeply insightful into Coulter's character as a strongly moral and conservative woman unafraid to speak her mind and practice what she preaches. In the end, she's more human and more likeable to me after reading this book.
I would give this book 3.5 out of 5, and would have gone to 4 out of 5 had there been more new content. Good job, Ann!
Sunday, November 14, 2004
Homebuyers are Irrational
I guess I'll never understand. People out buying houses are almost entirely irrational, at least as far as I can tell. Otherwise, why would I need to stage my house with furniture I don't even like? Why would having the lights on when they walk in the house matter? Why would it matter if I left a book I was reading out on the counter or not? Why would I have to hide the dishrack in a cabinet?
I'm not like that, but apparently most people are. So, I'm doing all those crazy things in the hopes my house will someday sell. Fortunately, I don't have to like it, I just have to do it.
I'm not like that, but apparently most people are. So, I'm doing all those crazy things in the hopes my house will someday sell. Fortunately, I don't have to like it, I just have to do it.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
POLITICS: Instant Runoff Voting
Adam asked me today what I thought of http://www.irvwa.org. What I think seems worthy of a blog entry.
I've heard of this, the Instant Runoff Voting system, and it always sounded good to me. (For details read about it at the website above.) It breaks the two-party system, so the Republican and Democratic parties aren't all that happy with it. But it's very favorable for people who really want to vote for a third-party candidate, but also don't want their vote to be wasted or to hurt the chances of the major party candidate closest to their views.
Washington's gubernatorial election is currently very close as they count absentee ballots. Gregoire (D) is leading over Rossi (R) by a slim margin that's getting smaller and smaller as they count the absentee ballots, probably because most of the King County absentee ballots are already counted (King county votes heavily Democrat) and the outlying eastern counties, while significantly smaller in population, have not yet been counted and trend heavily Republican.
The problem is that the Libertarian candidate has garnered more votes than the difference between the two and if there was no Libertarian candidate, Libertarians would vote almost entirely Republican, just as Greens would otherwise vote Democrat. The Libertarian party, which I think has a very good platform, better than the Republican platform in many ways, will never know how many people would REALLY vote for them because plenty of people are afraid to vote Libertarian only to end up with a Democrat because they spoiled the Republican's chances. I'm in that category.
The IRV system would allow me to say, "I'm voting Libertarian, but if they don't win, I'm voting Republican." That's very powerful and very cool and I would vote for such a system.
I've heard of this, the Instant Runoff Voting system, and it always sounded good to me. (For details read about it at the website above.) It breaks the two-party system, so the Republican and Democratic parties aren't all that happy with it. But it's very favorable for people who really want to vote for a third-party candidate, but also don't want their vote to be wasted or to hurt the chances of the major party candidate closest to their views.
Washington's gubernatorial election is currently very close as they count absentee ballots. Gregoire (D) is leading over Rossi (R) by a slim margin that's getting smaller and smaller as they count the absentee ballots, probably because most of the King County absentee ballots are already counted (King county votes heavily Democrat) and the outlying eastern counties, while significantly smaller in population, have not yet been counted and trend heavily Republican.
The problem is that the Libertarian candidate has garnered more votes than the difference between the two and if there was no Libertarian candidate, Libertarians would vote almost entirely Republican, just as Greens would otherwise vote Democrat. The Libertarian party, which I think has a very good platform, better than the Republican platform in many ways, will never know how many people would REALLY vote for them because plenty of people are afraid to vote Libertarian only to end up with a Democrat because they spoiled the Republican's chances. I'm in that category.
The IRV system would allow me to say, "I'm voting Libertarian, but if they don't win, I'm voting Republican." That's very powerful and very cool and I would vote for such a system.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Recent Reading
I thought it might be interesting to mention what I've been reading lately. I read a fair amount while on my trip to Hawaii, so the list of recently completed books is longer than usual for under a month, but I've really had some good ones that have kept me engaged. Lately, I haven't really read a lot of fiction, at least not a lot that I've been able to finish. I actually find I get a little bored with the fiction and find myself thinking, "Hey, what's the point?" I did read a couple novels during the Hawaii trip, though. So, here's the list of what I've read this last month, including links to their listings on Amazon:
Eaters of the Dead by Michael Crichton
amazon
This one was a pretty good book. I like the way it was written in the first person, narrated by Ibn Fadlon. I would have been happy to read more in the same vein. It's apparently a "true story" style telling of the story of Beowulf. Unfortunately, since I haven't read the poem, I had no idea and therefore didn't get the references. I may pick up a copy of the poem sometime so I can understand where he got his inspiration. Incidentally, I really like the movie based on this book, The Thirteenth Warrior, and the difference between book and movie in no way detract from either.
The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton
amazon
I was less interested by this one, and if it had been much longer, I might have just dropped it. It's probably because the story was written in the late sixties and so the high-tech elements seems so dated now. That probably takes some of the polish off the story. I've never seen the movie made off this book, so can't comment.
Sam Walton: Made in America by Sam Walton
amazon
I was really entertained by this book right from the start. The book reads just as if Walton was there talking to you directly, and his story is really an amazing one. If you don't know, he was the founder of Walmart, built totally from the ground up. The values he held and instilled in the company make not just his own success truly admirable, but the culture of that company totally outstanding. Anyone that thinks that capitalism lacks compassion, generosity, and looking out for employees is looking at the wrong examples. I especially recommend this book as a valuable counterpoint to, say, present-day liberal arts college coursework?
If You Don't Have Big Breasts, Put Ribbons on Your Pigtails: And Other Lessons I Learned from My Mom by Barbara Corcoran
amazon
Yet another book written about an entreprenuer's success, this time Barbara Corcoran, who founded The Corcoran Group as her real estate startup in New York City and over twenty years later sold it to Cendant for about $70 million. This one is also a story of hard work, inspired leadership, and a person who combined success in capitalism with a real concern for her employees, as well as her customers.
We Shall Not Fail: The Inspiring Leadership of Winston Churchill by Celia Sandys & Jonathan Littman
amazon
Celia Sandys is Winston Churchill's grand-daughter, and has compiled the lessons of his leadership in Great Britain as an education in leadership, not just of a country, but as it applies to business as well. The similarities between Churchill's attention to strategy yet compassion and connection for the frontline soldier and the citizen's enduring the German Blitz and the business endeavors of Sam Walton are striking.
Striking enough that I sent email feedback to the middle management that runs my group at Microsoft laying out lessons they could take from these two men. Sam Walton would talk to associates in the stores all the time, even when the company surpassed $50 billion in sales each year. Churchill would travel to the front lines to visit with soldiers and bring them inspiration and comfort, often at great risk to himself. It made me wonder why someone only a couple steps up the organization chart from me only noticed the rug I have in my office some nine months after I put it there. I sent that message a couple days ago after making sure it was welcome ("Is it okay for me to give you guys some feedback?") and unfortunately, so far all I have is silence. I guess we'll see.
And then, here's a list of what I have "on deck" waiting to be read next:
Basic Economics: A Citizens Guide to the Economy, Revised and Expanded by Thomas Sowell
amazon
Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One by Thomas Sowell
amazon
The Ten-Day MBA: A Step-By-step Guide To Mastering The Skills Taught In America's Top Business Schools by Steven A. Silbiger
amazon
Fantastic Voyage : Live Long Enough to Live Forever by Ray Kurzweil & Terry Grossman
amazon
How to Talk to a Liberal (If You Must) : The World According to Ann Coulter by Ann Coulter
amazon
Eaters of the Dead by Michael Crichton
amazon
This one was a pretty good book. I like the way it was written in the first person, narrated by Ibn Fadlon. I would have been happy to read more in the same vein. It's apparently a "true story" style telling of the story of Beowulf. Unfortunately, since I haven't read the poem, I had no idea and therefore didn't get the references. I may pick up a copy of the poem sometime so I can understand where he got his inspiration. Incidentally, I really like the movie based on this book, The Thirteenth Warrior, and the difference between book and movie in no way detract from either.
The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton
amazon
I was less interested by this one, and if it had been much longer, I might have just dropped it. It's probably because the story was written in the late sixties and so the high-tech elements seems so dated now. That probably takes some of the polish off the story. I've never seen the movie made off this book, so can't comment.
Sam Walton: Made in America by Sam Walton
amazon
I was really entertained by this book right from the start. The book reads just as if Walton was there talking to you directly, and his story is really an amazing one. If you don't know, he was the founder of Walmart, built totally from the ground up. The values he held and instilled in the company make not just his own success truly admirable, but the culture of that company totally outstanding. Anyone that thinks that capitalism lacks compassion, generosity, and looking out for employees is looking at the wrong examples. I especially recommend this book as a valuable counterpoint to, say, present-day liberal arts college coursework?
If You Don't Have Big Breasts, Put Ribbons on Your Pigtails: And Other Lessons I Learned from My Mom by Barbara Corcoran
amazon
Yet another book written about an entreprenuer's success, this time Barbara Corcoran, who founded The Corcoran Group as her real estate startup in New York City and over twenty years later sold it to Cendant for about $70 million. This one is also a story of hard work, inspired leadership, and a person who combined success in capitalism with a real concern for her employees, as well as her customers.
We Shall Not Fail: The Inspiring Leadership of Winston Churchill by Celia Sandys & Jonathan Littman
amazon
Celia Sandys is Winston Churchill's grand-daughter, and has compiled the lessons of his leadership in Great Britain as an education in leadership, not just of a country, but as it applies to business as well. The similarities between Churchill's attention to strategy yet compassion and connection for the frontline soldier and the citizen's enduring the German Blitz and the business endeavors of Sam Walton are striking.
Striking enough that I sent email feedback to the middle management that runs my group at Microsoft laying out lessons they could take from these two men. Sam Walton would talk to associates in the stores all the time, even when the company surpassed $50 billion in sales each year. Churchill would travel to the front lines to visit with soldiers and bring them inspiration and comfort, often at great risk to himself. It made me wonder why someone only a couple steps up the organization chart from me only noticed the rug I have in my office some nine months after I put it there. I sent that message a couple days ago after making sure it was welcome ("Is it okay for me to give you guys some feedback?") and unfortunately, so far all I have is silence. I guess we'll see.
And then, here's a list of what I have "on deck" waiting to be read next:
Basic Economics: A Citizens Guide to the Economy, Revised and Expanded by Thomas Sowell
amazon
Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One by Thomas Sowell
amazon
The Ten-Day MBA: A Step-By-step Guide To Mastering The Skills Taught In America's Top Business Schools by Steven A. Silbiger
amazon
Fantastic Voyage : Live Long Enough to Live Forever by Ray Kurzweil & Terry Grossman
amazon
How to Talk to a Liberal (If You Must) : The World According to Ann Coulter by Ann Coulter
amazon
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